startup-business-analyst-financial-projections

Imported from sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills (skills/startup-business-analyst-financial-projections/SKILL.md). Install upstream with npx skills add sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills --skill startup-business-analyst-financial-projections. Copyright stays with the author.

Financial Projections

Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.

Use this skill when

• Working on financial projections tasks or workflows
• Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for financial projections

Do not use this skill when

• The task is unrelated to financial projections
• You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

• Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
• Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
• Provide actionable steps and verification.

What This Command Does

This command builds a complete financial model including:

1. Cohort-based revenue projections
2. Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)
3. Headcount planning by role
4. Monthly cash flow analysis
5. Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway)
6. Three-scenario analysis

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Model Inputs

Ask the user for essential information:

Business Model:

• Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)
• Pricing structure (tiers, average price)
• Target customer segments

Starting Point:

• Current MRR/ARR (if any)
• Current customer count
• Current team size
• Current cash balance

Growth Assumptions:

• Expected monthly customer acquisition
• Customer retention/churn rate
• Average contract value (ACV)
• Sales cycle length

Cost Assumptions:

• Gross margin or COGS %
• S&M budget or CAC target
• Current burn rate (if applicable)

Funding:

• Planned fundraising (amount, timing)
• Pre/post-money valuation

Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill

The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:

• Revenue modeling approaches
• Cost structure templates
• Headcount planning guidance
• Scenario analysis methods

Step 3: Build Revenue Model

Use Cohort-Based Approach:

For each month, track:

1. New customers acquired
2. Existing customers retained (apply churn)
3. Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU)
4. Expansion revenue (upsells)

Formula:

MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
  (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion

Project:

• Monthly detail for Year 1-2
• Quarterly detail for Year 3
• Annual for Years 4-5

Step 4: Model Cost Structure

Break down operating expenses:

1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

• Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)
• Payment processing (% of revenue)
• Variable customer support
• Third-party services

Target gross margin:

• SaaS: 75-85%
• Marketplace: 60-70%
• E-commerce: 40-60%

2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)

• Sales team compensation
• Marketing programs
• Tools and software
• Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)

3. Research & Development (R&D)

• Engineering team
• Product management
• Design
• Target: 30-40% of revenue

4. General & Administrative (G&A)

• Executive team
• Finance, legal, HR
• Office and facilities
• Target: 15-25% of revenue

Step 5: Plan Headcount

Create role-by-role hiring plan:

Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:

• Roles by stage
• Compensation benchmarks
• Hiring velocity assumptions

For each role:

• Title and department
• Start date (month/quarter)
• Base salary
• Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4)
• Equity grant

Track departmental ratios:

• Engineering: 40-50% of team
• Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
• G&A: 10-15%
• Product/CS: 10-15%

Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow

Monthly cash flow projection:

Beginning Cash Balance
+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)
- Operating Expenses
- CapEx
= Ending Cash Balance

Net cash burn = Cash paid out - operating cash collected (positive when consuming cash)
Runway approximation = Cash Balance / positive monthly net cash burn
If burn is zero/negative, simple runway is not meaningful; model monthly cash dates and funding separately.

Include Funding Events:

• Timing of raises
• Amount raised
• Use of proceeds
• Impact on cash balance

Step 7: Compute Key Metrics

Calculate monthly/quarterly:

Unit Economics:

• CAC (S&M spend / new customers)
• LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate)
• LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0)
• CAC payback period (target < 18 months)

Efficiency Metrics:

• Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0
• Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5
• Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%

Cash Metrics:

• Monthly burn rate
• Runway in months
• Cash efficiency

Step 8: Create Three Scenarios

Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:

Conservative (illustrative downside, not a measured P10):

• New customers: -30% vs. base
• Churn: +20% vs. base
• Pricing: -15% vs. base
• CAC: +25% vs. base

Base (planning assumptions, not an estimated P50):

• Most likely assumptions
• Primary planning scenario

Optimistic (illustrative upside, not a measured P90):

• New customers: +30% vs. base
• Churn: -20% vs. base
• Pricing: +15% vs. base
• CAC: -25% vs. base

Step 9: Generate Financial Model Report

Create comprehensive markdown report with tables:

Section 1: Executive Summary

• 3-5 year financial snapshot
• Key metrics at scale
• Funding requirements

Section 2: Model Assumptions

• Revenue model and pricing
• Growth assumptions
• Cost structure assumptions
• Headcount plan summary

Section 3: Revenue Projections Monthly/quarterly tables showing:

| Month | New Customers | Total Customers | MRR | ARR | Growth % |
|-------|---------------|-----------------|-----|-----|----------|

Section 4: Cost Breakdown

| Department | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | % Revenue |
|------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
| COGS       | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| S&M        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| R&D        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| G&A        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |

Section 5: Headcount Plan

| Department | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|
| Engineering| X       | Y      | Z      | W      |

Section 6: Cash Flow Analysis

| Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net Burn | Cash Balance | Runway |
|---------|---------|----------|----------|--------------|--------|

Section 7: Key Metrics

| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| CAC | $X | $Y | $Z | <$A |
| LTV | $X | $Y | $Z | >$B |
| Burn Multiple | X | Y | Z | <2.0 |

Section 8: Scenario Analysis

| Scenario | Year 3 ARR | Customers | Burn | Runway |
|----------|------------|-----------|------|--------|
| Conservative | $Xم | Y | $Z | W mo |
| Base | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |
| Optimistic | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |

Section 9: Funding Requirements

• Amount needed
• Use of proceeds breakdown
• Milestones to achieve
• Expected valuation impact

Section 10: Validation

• Sanity checks performed
• Benchmark comparisons
• Risk factors
• Assumptions to monitor

Step 10: Save Model

Offer to save as markdown file:

• Suggest filename: financial-projections-YYYY-MM-DD.md
• Include note that user can convert to Excel/Sheets
• Provide formulas for key calculations

Model evidence and consistency

All target percentages, loading factors and scenario shifts here are illustrative assumptions, not universal industry benchmarks. Source actual business inputs and label unknowns. Apply age-specific cumulative cohort retention (not one retention factor to every cohort), avoid double-counting expansion and payroll, and reconcile revenue versus cash collection, taxes, working capital, capex and financing. LTV requires consistent periods and a positive churn assumption; denominator-zero metrics are N/A. Keep currency, time basis and gross/net definitions explicit and verify formulas before investor use.

Financial Model Best Practices

Do:

• Use cohort-based revenue model
• Include 3 scenarios
• Show monthly detail (Year 1-2)
• Calculate key metrics
• Validate against benchmarks
• Document all assumptions
• Show cash flow and runway
• Include fundraising milestones

Don't:

• Be overly optimistic on growth
• Underestimate costs
• Forget fully-loaded compensation
• Ignore cash timing
• Skip scenario analysis
• Use static headcount
• Forget to validate

Integration with Other Commands

Pairs well with:

• /market-opportunity - Use SOM for revenue ceiling
• /business-case - Include projections in business case

Example Usage

User: /financial-projections

Claude: I'll create a comprehensive financial model for your startup. Let me gather the key inputs.

What's your business model?
→ "B2B SaaS, subscription-based"

Current state?
→ "$50K MRR, 100 customers, 5-person team, $500K cash"

Growth assumptions?
→ "Expect 15% MoM growth, 10% monthly churn, $500 monthly ARPU"

[Claude builds complete model with all sections]

Notes

• Model building takes 45-90 minutes
• Results in comprehensive planning tool
• Update monthly to track vs. actuals
• Share with investors and board
• Use for fundraising decks
• Basis for budget and hiring decisions

Limitations

• Use this skill only when the task clearly matches the scope described above.
• Do not treat the output as a substitute for environment-specific validation, testing, or expert review.
• Stop and ask for clarification if required inputs, permissions, safety boundaries, or success criteria are missing.